Written by DAVID KEYES

January 30 , 2005

First off, congratulations are in order for Clint Eastwood today. Earning the prestigious Director's Guild of America award for his "Million Dollar Baby," he pretty much cements his chances at an Oscar win come later in February.

Or does he?

The DGA has correctly predicted the winner of the Best Director Academy Award all but six years since its inception in 1949. But consider the fact that three of those occasions have happened in just the past ten years -- once in 1995, again in 2001 and yet again in 2003. Why does the margin seem to be narrowing? Given the fact that members of the DGA are essentially the same people who vote for the Directing award at the Oscars, the split is often perplexing. But perhaps the recent weakness of tradition also hints that today's voting body thinks on more levels than just honoring the biggest achievement.

The most recent case came in 2003, when Rob Marshall won the DGA for "Chicago" but Roman Polanski walked away with the Oscar for "The Pianist." Marshall's adaptation of the Bob Fosse musical was the critical and commercial favorite, and had been the obvious frontrunner through the entire awards season. But "The Pianist" had obscure support in other corners of the Academy: 1) because it dealt with the kind of harsh subject matter that voters eat up; and 2) because Polanski has been in exile from the United States for several years, and many doubted he could ever reach that level of acclaim again. His surprise victory with the critics and the audience, needless to say, was strong enough to weaken Marshall's support later in awards campaigning, and that is why he walked away with the big prize.

Now take that shell of reasoning and bring into the 2005 competition. Clint Eastwood is a favorite among voters and celebrities, and everyone loves his "Million Dollar Baby." But they also love "The Aviator" -- which is the most nominated of all films at the Oscars this year -- and its director, Martin Scorsese, is considered a master of his craft. But despite all his success, he has also never actually won an Academy Award himself (his most recent nomination was, oddly enough, in the same year that Polanski took the surprise win). Many see this as his last big opportunity at finally walking away with the gold. Furthermore, Clint Eastwood may have two points working against him this year: 1) he won the same award in 1992 for "Unforgiven"; and 2) he is also nominated in the Best Actor category, which he has thus far been ignored in. Could all these factors play significant enough a role in how the voters fill in their ballots this time?

How this all turns out is anyone's guess at this point, but one thing is certain -- the DGA win does not easily benefit Eastwood this time around. Until the envelope is opened and the victor is announced, Scorsese should still be considered a viable challenger... and, indeed, one who has the opportunity to sneak through radar as easily as Polanski did two years before.