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Oscars 2008: Predicting
the Nominees January 21, 2008
Indeed, if I have spent countless hours on this specific task in the recent weeks, gnawing at prospects until the absolute last minute, it is because the time away from this intricate pastime has created a certain insecurity about my prior accuracy in this venture. The Academy has changed, evolved, grown to recognize the progress of filmmakers and the promise of modern sensibility when it comes to honoring engrossing material at the cinema. After treading to formula year after year well into this last decade, what a welcome change it was to see stimulating, mind-altering dark horses like “Crash” and “The Departed” walk away with top honors! Those victories have eaten away at a semi-conscious desire to completely detach from the movie awards machine, and now I find myself embracing, once again, the opportunity to study, analyze, predict and react as this industry consumes our senses in its attempts to say something significant and lasting on the quality of the motion picture over the previous year. What separates 2008 from most, of course, is that the fragile state of the industry as a result of the writer’s strike adds much to the facet. This is not an ordinary awards year. Much is uncertain, much is unsettled. But it will nonetheless unfold in a manner that will have us enthralled with anticipation. BEST PICTURE The Lowdown: Because of the nature of the conflict that has afflicted Hollywood on every cylinder since last December, the year of movies has, moreso than any other, been looked at as the year of the writer. As such, the Academy will follow a trajectory that allows them to recognize as many distinct scripts as possible in their higher award categories. Pictures will consist of a sweet and good-natured comedy (“Juno”), a critical triumph (“No Country for Old Men”), a drama that tears apart the seams of its source material (“There Will Be Blood”), and a traditional and beloved period piece adapted from an equally-praised source (“Atonement”). Of possible fifth nominees, I go with Tim Burton’s “Sweeney Todd,” a movie that has won over critics and audiences alike, essentially for being not just a weird visual piece in the Burton tradition, but for also being a musical penned by Stephen Sondheim. The industry saw a handful of successful musicals find their way into theaters over the last 12 months, and the Academy will recognize that detail by nominating the most challenging of the crop. BEST DIRECTOR The Lowdown: Tradition paves the way for a discrepancy in this category, in which only four of the five films nominated for top honors will see their directors receive recognitions as well. It’s anyone’s guess as to who of the five will falter, but my guess is that Anderson, who did the incredible “There Will Be Blood,” is the least-known of the major contenders, and therefore not as essential. His place will likely be filled by Julian Schnabel, whose “The Diving Bell and the Butterfly” was so acclaimed a picture that Miramax didn’t even bother pushing for a Foreign Language Film nomination, opting instead to try and secure it some recognition in the bigger categories. BEST LEADING
ACTOR The Lowdown: Undoubtedly the most secure of this year’s acting categories is that for Lead Actor, and the Academy will reflect that sentiment by offering its five nomination slots to the highest profile contenders of the entire awards season. Weakest link: Johnny Depp, who was nominates years prior for the first “Pirates of the Caribbean” film, and whose role as a murderous barber perhaps might not be nearly enough a departure for him to be seen as significant by voters. Upsets, by the same token, have more going against them than any of the likely sure bets. BEST LEADING
ACTRESS The Lowdown: The great roles for ladies were far in between for Hollywood actresses, who often saw themselves turning in brilliant performances in mediocre films (a prospect that hurts the odds of many, no matter how inspiring a portrayal may be). As such, we can likely forget about Cate Blanchett repeating history by being nominated a second time as Queen Elizabeth I; instead, the token bio-pic slots will be given to Cotillard and Jolie, both of whom were critically lauded in equally well-received pictures. The real sure things, needless to say, are Julie Christie and Ellen Page, who have taken 95 percent of the industry awards thus far and will be competing for top honors no matter who their competitors turn out to be. BEST SUPPORTING
ACTOR The Lowdown: Again, male actors benefit the most from the 2007 movie selection, and supporting roles were achievements in themselves. It is inconceivable for this category to be missing either Javier Bardem or Phillip Seymour-Hoffman, while Tom Wilkinson, who has the respect and the reputation with Hollywood that gets him noticed in even the most obscure of roles, will earn a much-deserved kudos here for his work in “Michael Clayton.” The Academy also loves a sentimental favorite sneaking in under the wire, and here they will make room for John Travolta, who is not only admired greatly by his peers, but also well acknowledged for the fact that he took such a drastic departure from the norm by, well, playing a woman in the movie adaptation of the “Hairspray” broadway musical. BEST SUPPORTING
ACTRESS The Lowdown: Nominations will be split amonst a diverse group of ladies in supporting roles, ranging from the strong and intelligent (Swinton) to the heartbreaking (Ryan) to the utterly bizarre and mind-altering (Blanchett, who is also deserving of the win). For balance, the Academy will also throw in child actor Saorise Ronan, who does great work with little material in “Atonement,” and Nikki Blonski, the young and new actress who bubbles with charm as the heroine of “Hairspray.” Other Predictions: ORIGINAL
SCREENPLAY ADAPTED
SCREENPLAY FOREIGN
LANGUAGE FILM ANIMATED
FEATURE ART DIRECTION/SET
DECORATON CINEMATOGRAPHY VISUAL EFFECTS © 2007, David Keyes, Cinemaphile.org. Please e-mail the author here if the above review contains any spelling or grammar mistakes.
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2008
opens with change in the air. Hollywood quivers under the clout
of a potentially drastic change to the industry with an ongoing
Writer’s Guild strike. Studios face a future filled with gaps
as scripts become more sparse and projects face delays. Networks
cope with the prospect that high-profile awards ceremonies will
get shortchanged by the absence of important figures. And yours
truly has settled back into a groove he had not expected to return
to when he gave it up over five years ago: sifting through heaps
of awards hoopla in order to come up with a fairly accurate prediction
of what the envelopes might contain when the Oscar nominations are
announced this Tuesday morning.All published materials contained herein are owned by their respective authors and cannot be reprinted, either in their entirety or in selection, without the expressed written consent of the writers.
© 2007 Cinemaphile.org.